YX 3588 · EWR → MCI

took off 6:03 PM ET · expected to land 7:35 PM CT (scheduled 5:55 PM ET → 8:08 PM CT)

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MCI?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ 5pm departures from EWR are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling3,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCI (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3588 · EWR → MCI

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCI?