Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3618
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
YX 3618 · EWR → YYZ
departs 8:29 PM ET · arrives 10:12 PM EDT
Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 28%
Sat 10/31 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at YYZ more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at YYZ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at YYZ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to YYZ?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
8pm departures from EWR are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 5 mi Precip none
YYZ (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.