YX 3618 · ORF → EWR

departs 6:26 PM ET · arrives 8:03 PM ET

Your aircraft is N768YX (E75L), coming in as YX 3603 from EWR: landed 4:47 PM ET.

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

88% chance · ±0 pts −8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORF

Weather at each end

ORF (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling3,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3618 · ORF → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?