YX 3639 · IAD → CVG

departs 10:10 PM ET · arrives 11:52 PM ET

Your aircraft is N783YX (E75L), coming in as YX 3420 from CLE: landed 8:44 PM ET.

Forecast issued Thu 8:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±0 pts −11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to CVG?

On time or early
95%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10pm departures from IAD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into CVG at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CVG

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

CVG (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3639 · IAD → CVG

Odds over time

How late will it get to CVG?