Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3644
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
YX 3644 · EWR → DTW
departs 9:29 PM ET · arrives 11:28 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 26%
Sat 10/31 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±5 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
9pm departures from EWR are often late
↓
Visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at EWR that day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
EWR (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
DTW (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.