YX 3689 · YQB → EWR

took off 5:56 PM EDT · expected to land 7:08 PM ET (scheduled 5:54 PM EDT → 8:04 PM ET)

Forecast issued Thu 6:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to EWR?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

YQB (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling3,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3689 · YQB → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?