Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3711
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
YX 3711 · YYZ → EWR
departs 8:14 PM EDT · arrives 10:10 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 29h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 38%
Sat 10/31 41%
Sun 11/1 44%
Mon 11/2 29%
Tue 11/3 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±9 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave YYZ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
YYZ (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip none
EWR (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.