YX 3712 · MDT → ORD

departs 8:11 AM ET · arrives 9:23 AM CT

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

7% chance · ±0 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at MDT that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

MDT (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3712 · MDT → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?