Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4337
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
YX 4337 · BNA → RDU
departs 12:18 PM CT · arrives 3:13 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 7%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 11%
Sat 10/31 13%
Sun 11/1 13%
Mon 11/2 12%
Tue 11/3 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
12pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 22% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into RDU at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RDU (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.