Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4345
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
YX 4345 · LGA → RIC
departs 9:29 PM ET · arrives 10:58 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 7%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 37%
Sun 11/1 40%
Mon 11/2 29%
Tue 11/3 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±3 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at RIC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to RIC?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
Visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at LGA that day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
RIC (destination)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.