Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4380
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
YX 4380 · LGA → BNA
departs 3:02 PM ET · arrives 4:26 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 59h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Wed 10/28 11%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 49%
Sat 10/31 21%
Sun 11/1 31%
Mon 11/2 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BNA (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.