Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4419
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
YX 4419 · LGA → GSO
departs 7:31 AM ET · arrives 9:29 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 5%
Wed 10/28 6%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 22%
Sat 10/31 8%
Sun 11/1 11%
Mon 11/2 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at GSO more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GSO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at GSO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to GSO?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 16% of the time recently
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.7 mi forecast at GSO that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
GSO (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.