Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4434 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow

YX 4434 · ORD → ORF

departs 2:26 PM CT · arrives 5:56 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 26h before departure

Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORF?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Arrivals into ORF at that hour are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ YX's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORF

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORF (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4434 · ORD → ORF

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORF?