Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4462
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
YX 4462 · LGA → CMH
departs 5:29 PM ET · arrives 7:38 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 AM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Wed 10/28 8%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 48%
Sat 10/31 18%
Sun 11/1 38%
Mon 11/2 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at CMH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CMH?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into CMH at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
CMH (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.