Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4475
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
YX 4475 · BOS → ROC
departs 9:11 PM ET · arrives 10:50 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 18%
Sun 11/1 24%
Mon 11/2 18%
Tue 11/3 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at ROC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ROC?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from BOS are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 21% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ROC (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.