Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4492
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
YX 4492 · SDF → ORD
departs 10:14 AM ET · arrives 11:00 AM CT
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 6%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 11%
Sat 10/31 22%
Sun 11/1 15%
Mon 11/2 11%
Tue 11/3 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
SDF is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SDF
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
SDF (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.