Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4496
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
YX 4496 · LGA → BUF
departs 4:00 PM ET · arrives 5:34 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · 59h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Wed 10/28 9%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 47%
Sat 10/31 18%
Sun 11/1 30%
Mon 11/2 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at BUF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BUF?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into BUF at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BUF (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 4,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.