Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4519
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
YX 4519 · ORD → ORF
departs 6:58 PM CT · arrives 10:28 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 29h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 18%
Sat 10/31 32%
Sun 11/1 25%
Mon 11/2 17%
Tue 11/3 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at ORF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORF?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into ORF at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORF
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORF (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.