Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4573
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
YX 4573 · JFK → RDU
departs 9:47 PM ET · arrives 11:38 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 29h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 20%
Sat 10/31 30%
Sun 11/1 26%
Mon 11/2 16%
Tue 11/3 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from JFK are often late
↑
Arrivals into RDU at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 3 mi Precip none
RDU (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.