Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4644
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
YX 4644 · LGA → LIT
departs 6:16 PM ET · arrives 8:46 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 31%
Sun 11/1 38%
Mon 11/2 28%
Tue 11/3 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at LIT more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at LIT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LIT?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 31% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LIT
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
LIT (destination)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9.66667 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.