Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4650
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
YX 4650 · MEM → ORD
departs 5:51 PM CT · arrives 8:00 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 20%
Sat 10/31 34%
Sun 11/1 24%
Mon 11/2 19%
Tue 11/3 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±7 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
5pm departures from MEM are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MEM
Weather at each end
MEM (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.