Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4668
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
YX 4668 · SDF → ORD
departs 5:17 PM ET · arrives 6:04 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 25%
Sat 10/31 45%
Sun 11/1 30%
Mon 11/2 19%
Tue 11/3 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SDF
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
Weather at each end
SDF (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.