Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4680
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
YX 4680 · LGA → CMH
departs 7:53 PM ET · arrives 9:53 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 9%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 30%
Sun 11/1 42%
Mon 11/2 23%
Tue 11/3 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±1 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at CMH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CMH?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into CMH at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
CMH (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.