Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4690
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
YX 4690 · RDU → JFK
departs 6:06 PM ET · arrives 7:52 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 27%
Sat 10/31 33%
Sun 11/1 44%
Mon 11/2 32%
Tue 11/3 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
Cloud base down to 100 ft forecast at RDU that day
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip none
JFK (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.