Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4696
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
YX 4696 · LGA → MEM
departs 8:17 PM ET · arrives 10:11 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 35%
Sun 11/1 40%
Mon 11/2 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±6 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at MEM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MEM?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 34% of the time recently
↓
Visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at LGA that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MEM
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
MEM (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.