Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4726
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
YX 4726 · IND → BOS
departs 6:09 PM ET · arrives 8:50 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 16%
Sun 11/1 26%
Mon 11/2 12%
Tue 11/3 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from IND are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
IND (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BOS (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.