Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4741
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
YX 4741 · ORD → PWM
departs 8:20 AM CT · arrives 11:57 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Wed 10/28 9%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 14%
Sat 10/31 22%
Sun 11/1 17%
Mon 11/2 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at PWM more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PWM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at PWM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PWM?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8am departures from ORD are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
This flight has been late 11% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PWM (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.