Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4765
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
YX 4765 · RDU → JFK
departs 12:08 PM ET · arrives 1:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Wed 10/28 12%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 39%
Sat 10/31 20%
Sun 11/1 24%
Mon 11/2 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↑
RDU is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 27% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
JFK (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.