Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4776
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
YX 4776 · ORD → MSN
departs 11:01 PM CT · arrives 12:08 AM CT
Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 31h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 9%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 9%
Sat 10/31 17%
Sun 11/1 12%
Mon 11/2 7%
Tue 11/3 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
7.0d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at MSN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSN?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into MSN at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 25% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSN (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.