Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4787
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
YX 4787 · LGA → GSP
departs 9:12 PM ET · arrives 11:20 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 41%
Sun 11/1 44%
Mon 11/2 30%
Tue 11/3 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at GSP more than 15 minutes late?
29%
chance · ±4 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
29%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
29%
Yes 29%
No 71%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at GSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to GSP?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
9pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at LGA that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at GSP
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
GSP (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.