Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4799
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
YX 4799 · ORD → MDT
departs 4:25 PM CT · arrives 7:27 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 18%
Sat 10/31 27%
Sun 11/1 26%
Mon 11/2 15%
Tue 11/3 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDT more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at MDT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MDT?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MDT (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.