Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5705
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
YX 5705 · LGA → GRR
departs 9:10 PM ET · arrives 11:22 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 30%
Sun 11/1 33%
Mon 11/2 26%
Tue 11/3 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at GRR more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±2 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GRR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at GRR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to GRR?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at LGA that day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
GRR (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.