Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5718
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
YX 5718 · BOS → EWR
departs 6:15 PM ET · arrives 7:58 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 37%
Sun 11/1 52%
Mon 11/2 32%
Tue 11/3 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±9 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late
↑
6pm departures from BOS are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
EWR (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.