Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5769
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
YX 5769 · IND → DTW
departs 4:59 PM ET · arrives 6:19 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 8%
Sat 10/31 17%
Sun 11/1 15%
Mon 11/2 10%
Tue 11/3 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±0 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
IND (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DTW (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.