Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5806
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
YX 5806 · MSN → BOS
departs 3:23 PM CT · arrives 7:06 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 6%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 12%
Sun 11/1 23%
Mon 11/2 15%
Tue 11/3 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±3 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave MSN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 23% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
MSN (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
BOS (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.