Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5815
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
YX 5815 · LGA → BUF
departs 9:40 PM ET · arrives 11:09 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 29h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 33%
Sun 11/1 30%
Mon 11/2 22%
Tue 11/3 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±3 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at BUF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BUF?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Gusts to 29 kt forecast at BUF that day
↓
Visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at LGA that day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
BUF (destination)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.