Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5826
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
YX 5826 · MSN → LGA
departs 3:36 PM CT · arrives 7:08 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 7%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 14%
Sun 11/1 26%
Mon 11/2 15%
Tue 11/3 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave MSN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
LGA is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
MSN usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MSN (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.