Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5832
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
YX 5832 · DTW → SDF
departs 7:45 PM ET · arrives 9:12 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 29h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 6%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 11%
Sat 10/31 18%
Sun 11/1 16%
Mon 11/2 11%
Tue 11/3 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±0 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at SDF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SDF?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
7pm departures from DTW are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
SDF (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.