Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5839 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow

YX 5839 · LGA → BOS

departs 10:00 PM ET · arrives 11:15 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 29h before departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±2 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BOS?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late

↑ 10pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS

↓ Visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at LGA that day

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

BOS (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5839 · LGA → BOS

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOS?