Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5840
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
YX 5840 · BOS → LGA
departs 10:00 PM ET · arrives 11:23 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 29h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 4%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 19%
Sun 11/1 31%
Mon 11/2 18%
Tue 11/3 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±6 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
10pm departures from BOS are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.