Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5852
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29 Tomorrow
YX 5852 · DTW → GRR
departs 5:58 PM ET · arrives 7:03 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 7%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 6%
Sun 11/1 12%
Mon 11/2 9%
Tue 11/3 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at GRR more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GRR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at GRR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to GRR?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from DTW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
GRR (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.