Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 5855
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
YX 5855 · GRR → DTW
departs 3:44 PM ET · arrives 4:50 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 5%
Wed 10/28 6%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 11%
Sat 10/31 12%
Sun 11/1 12%
Mon 11/2 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave GRR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
DTW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
GRR (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 2,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
DTW (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.