9E 4645 · HPN → DTW

took off 12:27 PM ET · expected to land 1:43 PM ET (scheduled 12:23 PM ET → 2:10 PM ET)

Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DTW?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ HPN is prone to delays

↑ This route's recent record

↑ 12pm departures from HPN are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at HPN

↓ 9E's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

HPN (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

DTW (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 4645 · HPN → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?