Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ENDEAVOR · FLIGHT 9E 4996 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

9E 4996 · LGA → GSP

departs 8:15 PM ET · arrives 10:09 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 58h before departure

Arrive at GSP more than 15 minutes late?

34% chance · ±14 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to GSP?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ 9E's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

GSP (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 4996 · LGA → GSP

Odds over time

How late will it get to GSP?