tailodds FORECAST

Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ENDEAVOR · FLIGHT 9E 5204 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

9E 5204 · LGA → ILM

departs 8:23 PM ET · arrives 10:07 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 58h before departure
Arrive at ILM more than 15 minutes late?
27% chance · ±13 pts – · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
MOSTLY HISTORY WEATHER FORECASTS LIVE IN THE AIR 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 6.8d Now 2d 1d 12h 6h Departs Lands

How late will it get to ILM?

  1. On time or early
    72%
  2. 15–30 min late
    8%
  3. 30 min–1 hour late
    11%
  4. 1–2 hours late
    6%
  5. Over 2 hours late
    1%
  6. Cancelled
    <1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.