Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ENDEAVOR · FLIGHT 9E 5297 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

9E 5297 · JFK → ROC

departs 10:29 PM ET · arrives 11:44 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±7 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ROC?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10pm departures from JFK are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into ROC at that hour are often late

↓ 9E's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ROC (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling3,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5297 · JFK → ROC

Odds over time

How late will it get to ROC?