Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ENDEAVOR · FLIGHT 9E 5478 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

9E 5478 · DTW → CVG

departs 9:45 PM ET · arrives 11:03 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CVG?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into CVG at that hour are often late

↑ 9pm departures from DTW are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW

↓ 9E's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

DTW (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CVG (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5478 · DTW → CVG

Odds over time

How late will it get to CVG?