Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ENDEAVOR · FLIGHT 9E 5517 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

9E 5517 · LGA → CVG

departs 8:30 PM ET · arrives 10:27 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 58h before departure

Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±14 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CVG?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ 9E's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CVG (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5517 · LGA → CVG

Odds over time

How late will it get to CVG?