Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

CAPE AIR · FLIGHT 9K 86 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

9K 86 · LEB → HPN

departs 3:24 PM ET · arrives 4:44 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 63h before departure

Arrive at HPN more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HPN?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into HPN at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LEB

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at HPN

Weather at each end

LEB (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling3,600 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

HPN (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9K 86 · LEB → HPN

Odds over time

How late will it get to HPN?