Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 771
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
9X 771 · MKK → OGG
departs 11:24 AM HT · arrives 12:22 PM HT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 40%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 20%
Mon 11/2 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave MKK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at OGG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OGG?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
OGG is prone to delays
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at OGG
↓
Arrivals into OGG at that hour are usually not late
↓
9X's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
MKK (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
OGG (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 1,700 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.